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U.S. Attorney General Eric Holder told a House Judiciary Committee that the April 15th crackdown on online poker was “appropriate” according to the laws on the books.

This is where the debate needs to be won, but can it be won?

He said that “We have to enforce the law as it exists and there are laws on the books with regard to Internet gambling that we have to enforce.

“The case that we brought for instance in the Southern District of New York involved pretty substantial amounts of money and big financial institutions and I think those cases are appropriate.”

Up to Congress to Decide

When asked about whether poker was a game of luck or skill, Holder said that it was beyond his capabilities to comment on that.  He also said that it was up to Congress to decide the matter and that the Justice Department would enforce the laws on the books.

Pay close attention to that. It is up to Congress to determine whether poker is a game of skill and the DOJ will enforce the laws on the books.

Holden also said “I am sure there is some degree of skill that is involved, some degree, I am not a poker player myself.”

That is an interesting statement to consider. There is “some degree” of skill in the game. How do we go about proving that skill is the predominate factor in the game of poker?

Do we look at the winners and losers?

The fact is that most people are losing poker players, and at some time in their lives, most winning players were losing players. And a good percentage of players that are “winning players” don’t make enough to significantly impact their income.

Do we look at stats?

The problem with stats is that you have to allow for variance. You won’t win 100% of the time with any hand, regardless of how skillfully you play. A skillful player should logically continue to win if he keeps his game up to par.

At What Point Does Skill Outweigh Luck?

The problem with that train of logic is that we know players go on bad runs. What are bad runs influenced by? Luck.

So at what point does the skill outweigh luck? We all know that in lower-limit poker games, a lot of players rely on luck to win and that even the best players can be beat down by lottery players.

You will say that you must look at the human factor to determine skill. But the problem with that is the human factor isn’t always viable.

For example, if you’re in a game with a calling station that is catching, all the skill in the world is not going to allow you to win. At the same time, the maniac that runs the table can get busted when his raises run into strong hands.

Some can argue that the player with the better hand was playing skillfully, while others will claim the maniac was playing the better game and he ran into a big hand.

It Isn’t Black and White

See how big of an issue that this is going to be folks? It isn’t as black and white as we try and make it out to be.

We know that most skillful players will be winners in the long run. We also know just as many players that have been flashes in the pan, won millions, and never did anything in poker ever again.

Skill vs. luck is not going to be enough to win this fight folks. Don’t delude yourselves into thinking such.